Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.